The Evolution of Great-Power Competition: The USA, China, and Russia in the 21st Century
Interconnected Conflicts: How Syria, Ukraine, and Taiwan Reflect Global Power Shifts
Thesis: The fall of the Assad regime in Syria has started to cause a significant result that brings a deep geopolitical change to the Middle East, between the USA, China, and Russia. All of this serves as a warning for the interconnected character of great power competition in today's world: the re-alignment of alliances, the fight for agency in Syria’s reconstruction, and broader implications for 'regional and global' geopolitics, chiefly for Ukraine and Taiwan.
The Fall of Assad and Its Immediate Consequences
Regional Power Vacuum
It was the moment the Assad fell, breaking Syria into pieces and opening the country up to a scramble for power among the players in the region and the world. When Assad’s regime fell, a power vacuum filled instantly, with Türkiye, Iran, and Saudi Arabia rushing to fill their roles. The major powers joined these actors, principally the United States, Russia, and, perhaps most importantly, China, who were seeking to use or increase their influence in the region. This was an opportunity for the United States to put its weight behind countering Iran’s ambitions and support the Syrian opposition’s future. But Russia's military presence in Syria came unstuck, with the departure of Assad and the rise of nonstate actors and extremist groups whose aim was to fill that vacuum.
Russia’s Strategic Setback
Russia's intervention in Syria had been seen as a way of keeping its fingers in a critical set of military bases and maintaining its foot in the Middle East. But with Assad’s fall, Russia’s (already precarious) foothold in Syria was at risk. Under a new, uncertain regime, the military bases at Tartus and Latakia were no longer guaranteed to Moscow. Instead, Russia began to support smaller factions and militias, intending to exercise some illusion of influence through intermediaries. It represented a break from its well-established practice of backing a stable government, a sign of the difficulty in projecting power when dealing with a fast-moving geopolitical environment.
The USA’s Renewed Opportunity
For the United States, Assad’s fall was a vindication of a long-term strategy aimed at tilting the balance of power toward it and against Iranian influence and a pro-Western order in the Middle East. Quickly the U.S. moved to close off the opportunity for extremist groups to fill the power void and to ensure Kurdish interests were protected while allegiances shifted. For Washington, it was a mix of diplomatic engagement and military presence, designed to stabilize the region and squelch the return of militant factions. The U.S. flagged what it would do to secure its own interests as powers such as China and Russia grew stronger on the regional and global stage.
China’s Expanding Role
China’s approach to Syria was markedly different from that of the U.S. and Russia. While Washington and Moscow were focused on military influence and strategic alliances, Beijing saw an opportunity for economic investment. China began to position itself as a major player in Syria’s reconstruction, using its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to gain access to lucrative infrastructure projects. This approach allowed China to extend its influence without directly engaging in the region’s conflicts, positioning itself as a neutral and beneficial partner. As Beijing sought to integrate Syria into the BRI, it aimed to expand its economic footprint in the Middle East, leveraging its financial resources to gain geopolitical leverage.
The Broader Geopolitical Landscape
Proxy Competition Intensifies
As the country waits to see who will control its future following the fall of Assad, proxy competition has escalated between national powers and major global powers vying for control of Syria. For example, Türkiye's intervention in northern Syria, such as it was, was designed to counter Kurdish influence and protect those interests. Just as Iran tried to keep its Belt and Road influence intact through backing Assad’s loyalist factions and proxy groups in Syria, so too did Assad work to boost the presence of Iran and Hezbollah in his country. But the U.S. and its allies found themselves recalibrating their strategies between backing local groups and dealing with the rise of outside forces, notably Iran, and Russia. But Syria has become a critical battleground as such fragmentation of authority has made the country a prize for regional and global influence.
Fragmentation and Extremism
As Assad’s regime has collapsed, not only has there been a power vacuum but there is also the chance for extremism to increase. It has further fueled instability with ISIS (and other jihadist groups) taking advantage of the chaos to rebuild their influence. As a result, Syria has become a new battle ground of counterterrorism activities, particularly for the United States and Russia that have allocated funds to fight against such threats. That Syria’s future will be decided in a competition reflects broader concerns over the spread of extremism and the role played by ‘non state actors’ to project the geopolitical outcomes.
The Middle East as a Great Power Battleground
As Syria changed hands, so did the Middle East, with the fall of Assad reshaping Syria and redefining the Middle East as a firing range for great power rivalry. Each of the U.S., China, and Russia are attempting to shape the region’s future to best secure its strategic interests. For the U.S., this means furthering the normalization of alliances with Gulf states and Israel to blunt Iran and Russian influence, but also keeping the focus centered on counterterrorism and stability operations. On the other hand, China desires to extend its economic influence by making investments in reconstruction, and infrastructure and making itself appear as a neutral player in a complex international situation. Meanwhile, Russia is determined to keep a handle on the area by indirect means through supporting smaller factions and militias to continue to have a strategic presence in the region.
How Ukraine and Taiwan Fit into the Picture
The situations in Syria, Ukraine, and Taiwan are interconnected through broader geopolitical dynamics, illustrating how these regions serve as theaters for great-power competition:
1. Ukraine
Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine has been a direct challenge to the U.S.-led international order. That was not just about territorial domination but a power struggle over Eastern Europe and the after-the Cold War world order. The U.S. has backed Ukraine extensively as a test of Western determination to resist Russian influence. The extent of Russian expansion into Europe is strategic, and the outcomes of the situation in Ukraine could alter U.S. and Russian relations and NATO’s future.
2. Taiwan
The other crisis — over Taiwan — is just as significant: a pressing struggle for mastery of the Pacific and chokepoints of commerce and tech manufacture. China’s stance on Taiwan is about reunification, and its way of asserting itself across the region. Taiwan has a strategic ambiguity in which the U.S. supports Taiwan militarily but is not committed to directly entering into a conflict. The Taiwan tensions reflect wider US-China rivalry, in terms of technology and economic competition.
3. Connecting the Dots
In Syria, Ukraine and Taiwan, regional conflicts are proving how those struggles are reflected in local conflicts. In Syria, the interest is on the implications for Middle East influence and energy markets. In Ukraine, it’s about security in Europe, the Western response to Russian aggression. It’s about maintaining U.S. influence in the Pacific, countering Chinese expansion, in Taiwan. The great powers’ strategic interests are reflected in the extent of their interconnection in these regions.
Long-Term Implications for Global Geopolitics
1. Realignment of Alliances
The Middle East’s never-ending list of alliances isn’t changing, but the fall of Assad is accelerating who counts for which side when it comes to partnerships. The shift, apparently, could be more general as some states like Iran, Türkiye, and Saudi Arabia are likely to seek to coalesce with external power to establish their interests.
2. Syria as an Economic Battleground.
This is all about Syria’s reconstruction, which is part of economic geopolitical competition. China’s strategy of building its influence through economic investment means that the BRI’s role is to fuel Europe’s efforts to establish economic hegemony in the region, challenging the initiative of the West. The coming competition over reconstruction projects is a key element of U.S.-China rivalry over who will control the future of Syria.
3. Escalating U.S.-China Rivalry
Both powers will view Syria as a new front of strategic rivalry and as a result, the U.S.—China competition is likely to become deeper. The U.S. has its priorities set on stability, and counterterrorism and the U.S. companies looking for markets and China invests in long-term influence through investment and development projects. It is a more general trend under which the great powers adopt various strategies (diplomatic, military, economic) to establish domination and to write the order of the future.
Conclusion
The fall of the Assad regime has initiated a new phase in the great-power competition among the USA, China, and Russia. As these powers compete for influence in Syria, the Middle East, and beyond, the implications for global stability are profound. The interconnected nature of conflicts in Ukraine, Taiwan, and Syria highlights the complex strategies used by major powers to maintain and extend their influence in a multipolar world. The outcome of this competition will have significant consequences not only for the regions directly involved but also for the future of global order and the stability of international relations in the 21st century.